TD report tempers optimism on West Coast pipeline GDP gains
A new TD Economics report forecasts a meaningful lift to Canadian and Alberta GDP from a West Coast oil pipeline, but cautions that projected gains may fall short of what provincial and federal governments are publicly forecasting. The report stops short of dismissing the project's economic case, acknowledging the pipeline would expand export capacity and reduce Canada's dependence on US markets.
Analysis: The gap between government forecasts and independent economic modelling is material for project financing and political risk assessments. Any shortfall in projected GDP uplift could affect the fiscal assumptions underpinning pipeline-related regulatory approvals and debt issuance.